Trump’s rhetoric about Greenland and economic threats against Canada could be a bluster or warning. Either way, in an era of climate breakdown and technological disruption, he won’t be the worst leader the US puts forward. Being an “ally” won’t shield us from imperial excess.

Trump’s “America First” vision isn’t an anomaly; it’s a roadmap. As resources become scarce and competition intensifies, the US may double down on its dominance—by force if necessary. Europe should prepare for a future where cooperation is conditional and sovereignty is at risk.

Thucydides taught us this long ago: “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” The Melian Dialogue warns against naive faith in alliances or justice when dealing with a dominant power prioritising self-interest over principles.

France and Germany’s responses to Trump’s Greenland comments—defending the principle of the inviolability of borders—are commendable. Europe and the UK must embrace realpolitik—acknowledge the reality of power dynamics, and act accordingly. Unity, resilience, and strategic foresight are not optional but essential.

For the UK, that means ever-greater alignment with the EU. Geographical realities mean the EU will always be our immediate partner. However, the rise of the far right in Europe and the UK poses a real danger to any sense of intra-state coherence.

Climate change will make resource wars more likely. AI and tech will widen power gaps. And as political systems polarise, Europe’s “special relationship” with the US may not always be the shield we want it to be. Hope isn’t a strategy. Preparation is.

The Melian Dialogue is a cautionary tale for today: The era of ‘benevolent’ superpowers may be waning. The next ‘Trump’ could make this one look tame. It’s time to smell the coffee. The world is changing fast—and not always in our favour.