Clive's indicative vote ballot papers

So we’ve voted.

The way to see this indicative (instructive but non-binding – a bit like the Referendum) procedure is to see it as 10,000m race.

These votes are like the penultimate lap where the runners are jostling – not necessarily for the lead position – but for the best placed position tactically to win in the final 400m.

That translates as lending votes to different options – whose members you want to support your preferred option. For me that is the Kyle/Wilson/Becket amendment.

It’s likely Theresa May’s deal will come first, but the main analysis will probably focus on where the other second, third and fourth options come out.

However, with Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg now indicating they could vote for Theresa May’s deal it’s possible Meaning Vote (MV)3 could yet see her deal get across the line, irrelevant of today’s indicative votes.

That said she must ensure, as the speaker today again reminded the govt, that her MV3 must be substantially different to MV2. That could mean dropping the Political Declaration. Although it is unclear whether that will be enough for the Speaker.


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